It is no secret that Sub-Saharan Africa has the lowest energy access rates in the world. According to Tracking SDG 7: The Energy Progress Report, 759 million people lack access to electricity worldwide, and Sub-Saharan Africa accounts for 75 per cent of them. Nigeria, with a population of over 200 million people, has nearly 50 per cent of its population without access to electricity from the grid. In contrast, those connected to the grid have less than 12 hours of electricity each day. Against this backdrop, Nigeria’s government launched its energy transition plan.
On the 24th of August, 2022, the Federal government of Nigeria launched the country’s energy transition plan to promote the development of energy projects, this plan would rely on gas as a transition fuel and the plan has its targets in addressing the country’s energy deficit, creating a pathway to a carbon-neutral economy by 2060. The launch was greeted with aplomb as senior government officials, key energy stakeholders, private sector partners, and development finance institutions from across the globe were present.
About a year earlier, President Muhammadu Buhari had made a pledge, committing Nigeria to achieve net-zero emissions by 2060. He made this declaration at the United Nations Climate Change Conference, COP26, in Glasgow, UK. As a major fossil fuel-producing country, Nigeria joined other major oil producers like Russia, Saudi Arabia and China to commit to net zero. But, beyond the pledges, what remains to be seen is how these countries plan to achieve these lofty goals.
Looking at the global emissions profile, it is clear that the energy sector is responsible for the largest emission of greenhouse gases which are largely responsible for the climate crisis plaguing the planet. This is because fossil fuels power the global economy. Energy Transition is the change in the composition of the primary energy supply, the gradual shift from a specific pattern of energy provision to a new state of an energy system. The biggest reason for Energy transition in contemporary times is the polluting nature of the current energy system. Therefore, finding cleaner fuels to power the global economy will ensure a healthier and more sustainable planet.
Nigeria’s Energy Transition plan was developed through a data-driven approach to match the country’s peculiar profile. Being a fossil-dependent economy, Nigeria faces the trilemma of improving energy access; growing the economy; while committing to climate targets. Because of this, the plan will see Nigeria shift from an oil to a gas-driven economy. Natural gas is seen as a less-polluting fuel to burn when compared to coal and oil. The country also sits on 206.53 trillion cubic feet (tcf) of proven gas reserves, or 3% of total global natural gas reserves. It is this resource that Nigeria is banking on as a bridge fuel as the country gradually increases the share of renewables in its energy mix.
The Benefits
This plan is consistent with other government proclamations, as, in March 2021, President Mohammadu Buhari announced the ‘Decade of Gas’ programme to leverage the country’s large deposits of natural gas. Additionally, shortly after the signing of the Petroleum Industry Act into law, the Honourable minister of state for petroleum, H.E Chief Timipre Sylva, identified 20 critical gas infrastructure projects that the government was working to bring onstream. One of these projects is the Ajaokuta–Kaduna–Kano (AKK) Natural Gas Pipeline, a pipeline to supply gas to the Northern part of Nigeria. Gas will remain a key player in Nigeria’s energy profile from every indication. The plan forecasts that by 2030, gas consumption will have increased by around 25% above the baseline number from 2019 and will start to fall to about 50% of the 2019 value as 2060 draws near.
Another key outcome of the Energy transition plan is the creation of jobs. During the plan’s launch, Vice President, H.E Prof Yemi Osinbajo, announced that the program could create up to 340,000 jobs by 2030 and up to 840,000 jobs by 2060. In addition, green jobs will be created due to the increase in investments in clean energy infrastructure (solar energy systems, electric vehicles and clean cookstoves), which will spur economic activity.
The plan would also help 100 million Nigerians escape poverty and stimulate economic development, provide modern energy services to the entire populace, address the anticipated long-term loss of jobs in the oil sector, and streamline current and future government-related energy transition programs. A target for reducing emissions by 65 per cent in five important industries—power, oil and gas, cooking, transportation, and industry—was also outlined. This will be accomplished by eliminating diesel and gasoline generators, boosting the ability of renewable energy sources to generate electricity, switching from gasoline and diesel-powered cars to electric cars, and switching from biomass, charcoal, and kerosene to clean cooking options.
What Will it Cost?
To finance this transition plan, an additional $410 billion will be needed by 2060. This translates to $10 billion annually above business-as-usual spending for effective implementation. Which amounts to a total expenditure of $1.9 trillion. In addition, $79 billion will be for developing clean and cooking solutions, $21 billion will be spent on decarbonizing industries and $12 billion on transport and another $12 billion on oil and gas decarbonization.
The Vice President, who is the head of the Energy Transition Implementation team, has hit the ground running with his team and recently visited the United States of America to seek global partnerships and support. The Vice President, in a lecture, proposed a debt-for-climate (DFC) swap deal to ensure a just energy transition for African countries. In exchange for the country’s pledge to invest domestically in particular climate or energy transition projects over a predetermined period, foreign creditors will agree to erase all or a portion of the country’s external debt, which can amount to billions in a nation like Nigeria.
Youth Opinion
David Arinze
We asked David Arinze, a program officer for off-grid energy at Diamond Development Initiatives, a non-profit development service provider in Nigeria, for his perspective. David stated that his work intersects with the Nigerian Energy Transition Plan as one of Diamond Development Initiatives’ areas of interest is the provision of clean, safe, cost-effective, renewable, and affordable energy sources and their potential. “We are excited that the government has made its commitments clear,” David says. He does, however, note that for this to become a reality, numerous economic activities must occur, as well as the presence of other supporting enablers.
David pointed out that other pertinent industries must take action in addition to government efforts. He argues that the education sector, for instance, needs a “marriage” with industry. According to him, modifications to the subjects taught are part of the reform required in the educational system. For example, specific topics that advocate the use of petrol should be replaced with information on renewable energy sources.
Workers in the energy industry must also be carried along; rather than being anxious that the energy transition plan will eliminate their jobs, they should be informed of the significant net job creation that the net zero pathway would provide. He further stressed that “there’s a gap in advocacy alone” when asked what the typical Nigerian youth could do. Additionally, there are significant income divides, and some people do not have the means to engage. However, more young people would start innovating to meet their daily requirements if they saw a bankable model that was economically viable for them.
Chukwuebuka Obimma
We also asked Chukwuebuka Obimma, an energy leader and project manager at SustyVibes. He said the Nigeria Energy transition plan is a pathway for Nigeria’s low carbon future with a twin objective of achieving universal energy access by 2030, which is in line with the Sustainable Development Goal 7, and a carbon-neutral energy system by 2060 which is in line with the FGN commitment to CO2 emission reduction target.
The transition plan would particularly impact my work as I continue to deploy off-grid renewable energy technologies to power households and other productive uses in rural communities without access to grid electricity. In addition, off-grid energy companies can obtain results-based finance from the Universal Energy Facility as part of a new financing window focused on supporting Stand-Alone Solar for Productive Use. Strategic partnerships and international community support would be critical in improving private-sector participation and increasing private-sector investment in the power sector. The Nigerian government has shown leadership in Decentralized Renewable Energy by deploying solutions to off-grid communities, government buildings, universities, and healthcare facilities.
Gloria Eguegbu
We also spoke to Gloria Oguegbu, the founder of Renewable Energy Technologies Institute which specializes in training entrepreneurs who promote access to clean electricity and Climate Smart Nigeria an organization working to combat climate action through education for climate literacy.
Nigeria is the only country in Africa to have come up with a plan and Gloria believes that this is a transparent move and a good step in the right direction. Gloria cited the example of Brazil “Brazil is very similar to Nigeria,” she says. Similar populations, climates and very similar temperatures, and similar issues with the economy like inflation. She explained that setting clear plans and policies helped them become one of the world’s top five global energy producers, and therefore the efforts of the Nigerian government towards this transition is a good step.
When asked how the plan intersects with her work, Gloria used an analogy of a mother and child. “A child cannot really do anything if the mother has not given permission, with permission the child then knows exactly what to do,” Gloria speaks. Therefore this plan helps people in this sector see what future plans the country has for the renewable energy sector and shows a clear path of what the government intends to do. She explains that this will in turn help them to form and strategize programs that will be within the government’s purview.
Gloria also explained that the plan also provides incentives for graduates of the renewable energy technology training institute who are taught about alternative energy sources such as how to construct and build solar panels. The plan assures them that there is a future for the work and possibilities for future funding.
Gloria believes that the role of the youth and non-governmental organisations is to support and help the government to make the transition easier and provide a soft landing for achieving this plan. She rightly points out that for the change to come, we need not just awareness but education. “People need to be educated on how to handle the change and calm that is coming, It’s going to be drastic, and that change has to happen.”
“Young people need us to look for how to help Nigeria solve its problem. And I’m not talking about just random brainstorming, but also sitting down and writing actual strategies” she says.
She believes that the only limitation making the plan unfeasible is the financial constraints. Nigeria needs $10 billion annually to achieve this plan. Who’s going to raise the money? She asks. Gloria also emphasizes the need to look for alternative ways to raise funds without relying on grants and aid or loan. She suggests looking for the largest emitters and taxing them. She believes this would in turn force them to create sustainable programs.
Nigeria is home to the largest youth population in the world. Therefore, the role of youths and NGOs cannot be understated in contributing meaningfully to policies and projects through capacity-building (technical assistance) and innovation to ensure an equitable and inclusive transition for all. Youths are expected to occupy most of the 340,000 jobs created by 2030 in bridging critical gaps surrounding energy access and clean cooking through the development of localized innovative energy solutions. Youths are not only instrumental in implementing this transition but also reap the most benefits from future projects.
Nigeria’s Energy transition requires a holistic and interdisciplinary approach to implementing the plans with a need for alignment among government ministries, departments, agencies, and developmental partners.
Conclusion
Although in agreement, a few others in the community were uncertain whether the plan would be implemented completely, given the scale of foreign investment required to achieve it. When asked about the role of youth, popular responses were centred on the conversation of including youths in this transition and making sure policies were set in place to spur innovation among youths.
In conclusion, development does not occur in silos. A program of this scale requires multi-sectoral collaboration to be successful. Academia has a role to play in the advancement of research and development. However, with frequent disruptions to the sector through strike actions, a political barrier exists to a viable source of innovation. The government of Nigeria must ensure that a favourable environment is created for the Energy Transition Plan to succeed in attracting investments, creating jobs and meeting the various climate targets that the country is committed to achieving.